S&P 500 & VIX Forecast

Weekly market outlook, volatility regime analysis, and options positioning guidance — published every Monday before the open.

MARKET SNAPSHOT — MAY 13, 2026
S&P 500
4,218
+1.4% MTD
VIX
22.4
Elevated — range-bound
10Y Treasury
4.12%
+8 bps MTD
WEEKLY OUTLOOK
Published May 13, 2026

S&P 500 Pushes Higher as Rate Optimism Returns

The S&P 500 extended its May gains as softer CPI data rekindled rate cut expectations. However, the index encountered resistance at 4,250, and without a catalyst to break through, further upside may be limited near-term. We favor a bull-call spread structure over directional exposure at current levels.

Full Outlook →
VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
Updated May 13, 2026

VIX Holds in Elevated Range — Contango Returns

After spiking to 26 in late April, the VIX has settled back to the low-20s, trading in a relatively stable range. The VIX futures curve has returned to mild contango after a brief period of backwardation. This environment is favorable for put protection at reasonable costs and selling volatility into rallies.

VIX Deep Dive →
OPTIONS STRATEGY OF THE WEEK
May 13, 2026

Iron Condor — Capitalizing on Range-Bound Volatility

With the VIX in a 20–26 band and the S&P 500 sitting just below major resistance, an iron condor makes sense. We recommend selling the 4,180/4,200 put spread and the 4,280/4,300 call spread, both 2 weeks out, collecting premium in the $1.80–$2.20 range per spread.

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ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Week of May 13, 2026

Key Data on Deck

Tuesday: CPI (April) — expected +0.2% core. Wednesday: PPI, Fed minutes. Thursday: Retail sales, jobless claims. Friday: Consumer sentiment, industrial production. CPI and Fed minutes are the week's main volatility drivers.

Economic Calendar →